Thursday 12 Dec 2019 | 07:27 | SYDNEY
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About the project

The International Economy program aims to explain developments in the international economy, and influence policy. It does so by undertaking independent analytical research.

The International Economy program contributes to the Lowy Institute’s core publications: policy briefs and policy analyses. For example, the program contributed the Lowy Institute Paper, John Edwards’ Beyond the Boom, which argued that Australia’s transition away from the commodities boom will be quite smooth.

 

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NAFTA to USMCA – what’s in a name?

What’s in a name? According to US President Donald Trump, it is the difference between the “worst trade deal ever made” – as he called the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) – and a “wonderful new trade deal” – his reference to the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) – which has been agreed to replace NAFTA. After a lengthy period of Trump lambasting NAFTA, threatening to walk away, and intimidating Canada and Mexico with the threat of higher tariffs if they did not agree to US demands, the three countries came to a “last minute” (the deadline imposed by the US) agreement on 30 September to replace NAFTA with USMCA.

If a member of the USMCA negotiates a trade deal with a non-market country – read China – it can be kicked out of the USMCA.

Irrespective of the merits of the new agreement, when it comes to names, the acronym USMCA does not flow off the tongue as easily as NAFTA (it is even worse for French-speaking Canadians who would refer to it as AEUMC). But Trump does like renaming things and the main attribute of the new trade deal as far as Trump is concerned is that it is not called NAFTA.

Was the renegotiation of NAFTA worth the effort? Following the announcement of the USMCA, CNBC reported “New Trump trade deal leaves NAFTA largely intact”. It was noted that there were some technical changes to such things as rules about manufactured cars and trucks, opening up the Canadian dairy industry, the length of copyrights and rules governing disputes, but overall North American “free trade” will continue, more or less, as it has done for many years. The Washington Post observed: “The only truly radical difference is that Trump’s negative angry language [against NAFTA] has been replaced by happy, enthusiastic language [in support of USMCA]”.

But these assessments underplay the significance of the new USMCA and what it conveys in terms of the US approach to trade deals.

As is common with such deals, the focus turns to identifying winners and losers, in other words, which country made the biggest concessions. It stems from the entrenched mercantilist view that exports are good and imports are bad, and a country’s measure of a successful trade deal is the extent of the concessions it has extracted from other partners. In assessing winners and losers, no account is normally given to the trade distorting impacts that may flow from such agreements and the impact they may have on consumers.

In terms of the three members of the USMCA, however, the US has come out on top, but this does not make it a “good” trade agreement for the US. The main gain for Canada and Mexico is relief that NAFTA was not abandoned altogether, and that trade in North America will largely continue as it has done. However, while Canada and Mexico have avoided the US threat of large tariffs on automobiles (they will receive a tariff free quota), the USMCA does not remove the threat to Canada and Mexico of US tariffs on steel and aluminium on national security grounds.

Canada does have to open its long-protected dairy market to US competition. While Canadian dairy farmers are complaining, it is a good outcome for Canadian consumers and the Canadian economy. As to other changes under the USMCA, cars will qualify for tariff-free treatment only if 75% is produced in North America, up from 62.5% in NAFTA.

In addition, 30% of the content must be produced by workers earning at least US $16 per hour, and this will rise to 40% in 2023. This is more than three times what the average Mexican automotive worker earns. While the auto workers in the US may welcome these changes, it will raise the cost of cars produced in North America, which will be felt by consumers and provide an incentive for American and Canadian car manufacturers to relocate elsewhere.

Other “gains” to the US include lengthening patents for US pharmaceuticals and strengthened intellectual property rights. Canada sought, but failed, to remove “Buy American” and open up subnational procurement in the US. Canada’s CBS News summed up the impact of USMCA as: “higher drug prices, longer copyright terms and no reprieve from ‘Buy American’”.

The new deal also contains a provision deterring members from manipulating their currencies. This US inspired provision is not aimed at Canada or Mexico, who have floating exchange rates, but is clearly a signal directed at China.

A particularly significant feature of the USMCA is that it does not just cover trade among the three members of the agreement, but impacts on their ability to enter into trade deals with other countries. If a member of the USMCA negotiates a trade deal with a non-market country – read China – it can be kicked out of the USMCA. Blayne Haaggart from Canada’s Brock University concluded:

It’s hard to read this as anything but a way to further lock Canada and Mexico into the US orbit, restricting their ability to counterbalance overwhelming American influence.

The USMCA may be Trump’s biggest trade deal to date and it may have removed uncertainty over the future of NAFTA, but it is hardly a positive for the global economy. It has demonstrated the US “take no prisoners” approach to trade negotiations, even when dealing with its allies.

Moreover, it demonstrates yet again Trump’s obsession with China.

Sliding rupiah causes Jakarta jitters

Capital has been flowing out of emerging economies around the world, causing currencies and financial markets to fall. While tightening global liquidity was the initial catalyst, the threat from Donald Trump’s trade war and fear that "contagion" might spread from Turkey and Argentina have added fuel to the fire.

Indonesia has found itself at the centre of such concerns in Asia. The rupiah has fallen about 10% since the start of the year and is now plumbing lows not seen since the Asian financial crisis. This has prompted much concern in Jakarta, where the scars from that crisis still run deep and many know all too well that "contagion" is a real thing. Policymakers have thus reacted strongly, happy to crimp economic growth for the sake of greater stability.

But is Indonesia really at risk of "contagion"? The rupiah’s fall to date has not really been that large. Nonetheless, Indonesia has been among those economies most significantly affected by capital outflows this year. A simple extrapolation, then, might suggest that if true contagion were to spread due to a more significant global shock, it would spread to Indonesia.

Yet such thinking ignores any meaningful analysis of Indonesia’s economic situation or indeed how a contagion might be transmitted.

The starting point is recognising that Indonesia’s fundamentals remain sound. Economic growth has been very consistent at 5% a year, inflation is subdued, public finances strong, and the banking system in broadly good health.

The current account deficit is the key weak point, but concerns are overblown. Presently it is only at 2.3% of GDP (on a rolling four-quarter basis). This exposes Indonesia to short term swings in capital flows, but it is hard to imagine investors would be permanently unwilling to finance such a moderate deficit given Indonesia’s comparatively strong growth prospects. Indeed, even this year, capital flows have quickly returned whenever global volatility has receded, suggesting investors, on net, tend to agree.

Economists liken this kind of situation to the difference between a solvent firm experiencing liquidity problems and one that is insolvent. Illiquidity can however quickly turn into insolvency. So the key thing to ask is: how easily could things tip over and undermine Indonesia’s good fundamentals?

One possibility is if investors see eerie similarities with other economies experiencing difficulties and simply reassess a country’s economic health. That was the case in 1997 when the collapse of the Thai baht set off a sharp reassessment of Indonesia’s economy and others in the region. Today, however, is much different. Indonesia shares neither the extent of economic problems in Turkey and Argentina nor the political drivers underpinning them. There is little reason for investors to suddenly reassess Indonesia’s fundamentals on this basis.

Another potential source of contagion is the dreaded risk of a ‘sudden stop’ (a prolonged cessation of capital inflows) if markets become unnerved or seize up for whatever reason. That would leave Indonesia unable to finance its current account deficit, or rollover maturing external debt, and potentially facing a painful and disorderly economic adjustment.

Yet this is precisely why Indonesia, and many other Asian economies, hold such substantial foreign exchange reserves. In the event of a ‘sudden stop’, Indonesia can use its reserves as emergency liquidity financing until markets normalise. Indonesia’s reserves are enough to cover its gross external financing needs for almost 18 months. Turkey and Argentina would only get by for several months.

Another risk is that a falling currency increases the burden of debt denominated in foreign currencies, potentially creating insolvency problems. Indonesia’s foreign currency debt is somewhat elevated at 28% of GDP. But half is owed by the government, which remains in a strong fiscal position, while half of the remainder is held by mining and manufacturing firms which tend to enjoy some natural hedging of currency risk. Nor does the banking system look obviously vulnerable. It remains well capitalised, not overly reliant on foreign funding, and mostly lends on rupiah terms.

What about America’s escalating trade war with China? This is certainly a threat. Indonesia however is less exposed than many other Asian economies. It is less trade dependent and it mostly exports basic commodities primarily used domestically by importing countries rather than as inputs into their own exports. The trade war would thus need to significantly reduce economic growth in Indonesia’s major trading partners to cause serious knock-on effects. A financial crisis in China is also a key risk in that regard. But that has been a tail risk for some time.

So where does all this leave Indonesia? The rupiah is likely to stay under pressure as global liquidity and interest rates tighten, particularly against a generally strengthening US dollar. Rising oil prices will add further pressure. Continued volatility and further depreciation thus seem more likely than not. But Indonesia’s solvency does not look especially sensitive to the major risks on the horizon. Global difficulties would thus have to escalate very severely to tip Indonesia over into a situation that looks anything like Turkey’s or Argentina’s problems today.

An emerging Indo-Pacific infrastructure strategy

The reaction to this week’s announcement by US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo of a US$113 million infrastructure fund is that it was more than a tad underwhelming.

When set against potentially upwards of US$1 trillion in financing for China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) – to which the new US fund is a thinly veiled response – that certainly seems the case. Yet the outlines of an Indo-Pacific infrastructure strategy that looks potentially more promising can also be seen. 
 

A four-pronged strategy

First, it’s important to note that the US$113 million isn’t aimed at financing new infrastructure projects. Instead, it appears primarily intended to provide technical support to help governments develop and manage their own investments, particularly by attracting private capital. Viewed in this light, it is a more substantive amount, although still not a lot once spread across numerous countries.

Second, this is only the first step. A more significant next step is the BUILD Act, which is currently working its way through Congress. This would revamp the existing Overseas Private Investment Corporation into a new International Development Finance Corporation with modernised financing capabilities, including a doubling of its contingent liability ceiling to US$60 billion. 

Even a modest amount of new funding is welcome given the region’s infrastructure financing needs.

Third, a new trilateral framework is being established between the US, Australia, and Japan. Whether additional funds might come from Australia and Japan is not yet clear, although the latter did move earlier in 2016 to earmark US$200 billion over five years for its “quality infrastructure” initiative.

Fourth is an emphasis on “high standards” (or similar euphemisms) aimed at distinguishing its appeal compared to Beijing’s offering, which Washington paints as lower quality, self-serving, and a potential debt trap. High standards, by contrast, is intended to mean better built projects, transparency, competitive tendering, strong environmental and social safeguards, and, most importantly, economic sustainability.

Hence, the outlines of a four-pronged strategy appear to be emerging, consisting of a modest increase in funding, mobilising private capital, cooperation among financiers, and an emphasis on high standards.
 

A preliminary assessment

Even a modest amount of new funding is welcome, given the region’s infrastructure financing needs to 2030 are as high as US$26 trillion. The focus on mobilising private capital also makes plenty of sense, as official capital could never plug the gap and there is plenty of market interest. 

All this, however, is much easier said than done. The World Bank and Asian Development Bank have been doing this for years with limited success, at least at the kind of scale required, and in more difficult environments.

The problem is the limited pool of “bankable” projects. Critically, the main blockages lie in the recipient countries themselves – including pernicious problems of land acquisition, non-economic cost recovery, inept and corrupt bureaucracies and state-owned firms, poor project selection, and legal and regulatory frameworks that deter private participation.

Providing technical support can help, as most developing countries’ governments lack the expertise required across many areas. But deeper political and institutional problems are rarely easily overcome.

This leads to one clear difficulty in seeking to compete with BRI – bankability is much less constraining for China as it has been willing to take on much higher risks. Partly this is because it has at times misread the potential problems of working in many countries. This may eventually see it tighten its approach. Even so, as long as China retains a higher risk tolerance than other potential financiers, it will continue to find plenty of willing takers. 

The focus on “high standards” presents similar issues. For Western donors, this means good-quality investments. But for developing country governments, it usually means excruciatingly slow approvals, interference in domestic policies, preferred projects that go unfinanced, and, often, less overall investment.

China, on the other hand, is seen as faster, less burdensome, and more responsive. Even an emphasis by the trilateral partners on debt sustainability, while sensible and necessary, will do little to deter governments unperturbed about their own fiscal profligacy from seeking alternative financing options.
 

Of good development and good geopolitics

A race to the bottom is undesirable. The emphasis should instead be on encouraging China to converge over time towards something that looks more like existing global practices.

China, for its part, seems interested in doing this anyway. For instance, it has set up the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, its own International Development Cooperation Agency, and funded an International Monetary Fund facility to help governments receiving Chinese money better assess debt sustainability risks.

The trilateral framework could encourage this direction by setting a clear basis for potential cooperation with China (and others), where a commitment to broadly similar standards can be made.

But the trilateral partners should also not ignore serious shortcomings in their own existing approaches, which not only limit their impact but also make it harder to compete with Chinese finance. 

China’s willingness to engage in difficult environments should not simply be dismissed as uneconomic, but rather taken as a challenge to think harder about how to better support fragile states and least developed countries. External assistance here is most costly and difficult, but also greatly needed for both developmental and security reasons. 

Similarly, slow and burdensome processes need an overhaul, particularly at the World Bank and ADB which deliver the bulk of infrastructure development finance (including substantial co-financing from the trilateral partners). Much of this could potentially be greatly streamlined in ways that either retain the quality of the projects financed or achieve a better balance between managing risks and delivering results. 

A final area for reflection is the amount of financing itself. It is frequently said that it is impossible to compete with the scale of Chinese finance. Leaving aside much uncertainty about how large that is, the trilateral partners have plenty of firepower they are not using. All three only commit about 0.2% of their gross national income to official development assistance, compared to an average 0.5% among Western European countries. 

In Australia’s case, consideration might also be given to using bilateral loans (as Japan already does and the US seems to be moving towards) rather than only    providing grant financing. This would greatly magnify the amount of resources available. It makes particular sense for infrastructure projects, where financial returns should be expected.

Trade: the US should be isolated, not accommodated

Prior to leaving for the latest G20 Finance Ministers Meeting, held at the weekend in Buenos Aires, Australian Treasurer Scott Morrison said “the trade war cannot be ignored”. He has never said truer words. Unfortunately, it seems that the G20 ministers largely ignored the trade war.

While the communiqué released following the meeting acknowledged that “heightened trade and geopolitical tensions” pose risks to global growth, there was only one reference to doing something about reducing the risk:

We reaffirm our Leaders’ conclusions on trade at the Hamburg Summit and recognise the need to step up dialogue and actions to mitigate risks and enhance confidence.

This statement isn’t going to do much to ease concerns over a trade war.

Why isn’t the threat of a trade war being treated seriously? During Donald Trump’s campaign for the US presidency, concern was expressed about his views on trade. In 2016, USA Today ran the story “Trump’s trade policies worry economists”.

Yet despite a strident protectionist line both throughout his campaign and when he came into office, there seemed to be a view that Trump’s bark would be worse than his bite.

While Trump’s trade policies are not positive for the world economy, they are manageable if countries don’t retaliate.

Even after Trump ordered steep tariffs on steel and aluminium imports, of 25% and 10% respectively, earlier this year, there was a view that it would be alarmist to talk about a trade war. Prominent economist Dani Rodick said in March that “the reality is that Trump’s trade measures to date amount to small potatoes”.

This tendency to play down the seriousness of a Trump-inspired trade war seemed to reflect a view that it is only a concern if the restrictive measures he has announced are likely to result in a full-blown crisis. For example, in March Kristian Kolding and Chris Richardson implied that we should not be too concerned because Trump’s tariffs on steel and aluminium wouldn’t spell a recession for the world or for Australia.

What was not taken into account sufficiently is how a trade war can escalate with tit-for-tat restrictive measures. And a recession should not be the benchmark for escalating concern over Trump’s trade policies. In a world that is only starting to throw off the constraints of the global financial crisis, we should take any policies that are likely to restrain growth very seriously, even if they do not result in a recession.

The trade war has escalated. While Trump may have flip-flopped on other issues, he has consistently implemented his threats to address “unfair trade”, at least in his eyes.

On 6 July, Trump ordered 25% tariffs on approximately US$34 billion of Chinese imports, which were promptly met by retaliatory tariffs on an equivalent volume of US exports to China. On 20 July, Trump was “ready to go” and impose tariffs on US$500 billion of imports from China, and he has threatened sweeping tariffs on automobile imports from the European Union.

In the lead-up to the G20 Finance Minister’s Meeting on weekend, the International Monetary Fund issued a Surveillance Note warning that:

the likelihood of escalating and sustained trade actions has risen, threatening a serious adverse impact on global growth.

The note contained four hypothetical trade scenarios for the global economy. If all currently announced tariffs go into effect, global output would be reduced by 0.1% by 2020. It does not sound much. But the IMF points out that if global confidence is shaken by these tariffs, which is likely, global GDP could decrease by 0.5% – or around US$430 billion – below the current projection for 2020. Such an outcome would make a serious dent in global growth.

It was only four years ago, under the Australian G20 presidency, that the objective was to increase global growth by an additional 2% over five years, and the measure of success for the G20 was the extent to which additional growth was achieved. The G20 cannot now take any comfort in the extent to which their restrictive trade policies will “only” result in a decline in growth that would otherwise be achieved.

If the G20 members took the Trump-inspired trade war seriously, what could they do about it? The finance ministers could at a minimum signal to the rest of the world that they discussed it at their recent meeting rather than releasing a communiqué featuring such bland words as “we are working to strengthen the contribution of trade to our economies”. What happened to previous commitments to resisting protectionism, even if they did not follow through with them?

G20 finance ministers need to get real and signal that a tit-for-tat trade war will seriously damage growth, even if the US will not sign up to such a message. The US needs to be isolated and not accommodated. Moreover, the best thing G20 members could do to avoid a trade war is signal that they will “do nothing”. That is, they should commit to not engage in retaliation.

In March, the Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Philip Lowe said that while Trump’s trade policies are not positive for the world economy, they are manageable if countries don’t retaliate. Dani Rodick recently observed that if Europe, China, and other countries want to uphold a rules-based multilateral system, they should not mirror Trump’s unilateralism and take matters into their own hands by retaliating. They should work through the World Trade Organisation.

If one member of the G20 issues trade barriers, the rest of the G20 members should condemn the move, but commit to maintaining their open borders and avoiding a trade war.

Short-term capital flows to emerging economies

Emerging markets are under pressure from events in the global economy, including the normalisation of American monetary policy, the strengthening of the US dollar, and President Donald Trump’s trade war. Heightened risk perception is causing substantial outflows of foreign capital from the emerging economies. Australia’s region, however, seems to be coping without drama.

But the surges and retreats of foreign capital flows pose the question: how could they be made less volatile and thus more beneficial? 

For decades, conventional wisdom has urged emerging economies to integrate their financial sectors more closely with advanced economies and adopt freely floating exchange rates. This was expected to provide additional funding, raising investment and growth. A freely floating exchange rate was supposed to remain stable, fostering steady capital flows. 

When this worked out disastrously (for example, the 1998 Asian crisis), the standard assessment was that the fault lay with the recipient countries, which had not followed the prescription closely enough: “Should try harder”. 

But the evidence is accumulating that short-term flows are intrinsically volatile, with surges and retreats reflecting changes of mood (“risk-on”, then “risk-off”) in the investing economies.

The latest Bank for International Settlements annual economic report provides details on one important component of the flow: foreign investment that comes via managed portfolio funds which buy emerging-economy bonds and equities on behalf of foreign savers.

Source: Bank for International Settlements


It was a nervous year in 2015, with net outflows, especially in the second half of the year. By 2017 foreign portfolio investors had their mojo back, helped by the “push” factor of low returns at home and a weak US dollar. Now the flow has turned negative again.

The recipient countries in our region have, for the main part, learned to live with these fluctuations. Their exchange rates are flexible (if not quite floating freely). The graph below shows that the exchange rates of emerging markets (red line, with a rise denoting a depreciation of the currency) didn’t fluctuate as much as the euro (blue) or the yen (yellow). 

Source: Bank for International Settlements


In our region, exchange rates have depreciated, but roughly in line with the global appreciation of the US dollar. The renminbi, rupee, and rupiah have fallen less than 10% over recent months – not much different from the weakening Australian dollar. 

This may, however, conceal underlying stresses. These countries routinely use their substantial foreign exchange reserves to smooth their exchange rates. This is not costless: they are holding low-return foreign assets, waiting for the moment when these will be used to support the exchange rate for fear of overshoot. 

Moreover, their macro policies are constrained by the threat of outflow. These countries have learned that they have to keep their budget and external deficits on a tight leash. Perhaps this discipline is useful, but it certainly diminishes the benefits of international capital flows in meeting the local savings shortfall: they can’t draw too deeply on this fickle source.

How can these flows be made more stable and thus more useful?

Conventional wisdom says that when these emerging economies are able to fund their deficits with local-currency-denominated bonds, the foreign flows will be more stable because the foreigners know that the debtor country can always pay back debt issued in its own currency. This, however, was always a misguided argument. Foreigners who have lent in local currency still have a compelling reason to flee in response to exchange rate concerns, as they don’t want to be paid back in depreciated currency.

Source: Bank for International Settlements


Thus, in practice, local-currency debt yields move more than dollar-denominated yields when risk-aversion rises. The red line in this graph shows how the yield margin on emerging-economy local-currency debt (the difference between yield on this debt and US dollar–denominated debt) widened during the outflow period 2015–16, compared with the margin on dollar-denominated debt (the yellow and blue lines).

What are the lessons? 

First, developing domestic bond and equity markets will encourage local saving and intermediation, which is a good thing. But this doesn’t solve the problem of volatile capital flows. 

Second, it makes sense to manage fragile exchange rates in emerging economies rather than allow a pure free-float. But that doesn’t mean over-managing. If the exchange rate and bond yields are allowed to move significantly when outflows occur, this would impose an appropriate penalty on fickle foreigners who routinely flee like lemmings whenever sentiment changes. 

Other measures might discourage the fair-weather investors: transaction taxes, minimum holding periods, tight macro-prudential rules and effective imposition of income taxes. 

None of this fits the conventional wisdom of encouraging seamless financial integration. But if such measures discourage some of the flighty foreign investors, so much the better. Better still if the foreign funds come in the form of foreign direct investment or stable company-to-company loans.

Tit-for-tat-for-tit-for-tat

The US is moving quickly to follow through on Trump’s threats to further escalate his trade war with China (now is as good a time as any to say that the trade war has officially started).

Last week the US imposed tariffs on US$34 billion worth of Chinese imports, with another US$16 billion to be hit shortly, and China is responding in kind. Now the administration has released a list of a further US$200 billion worth of Chinese goods that it proposes to hit with higher tariffs, as part of Trump’s threat to double-down in response to Chinese retaliation.

There is real concern Trump’s bullying tactics are only strengthening the hand of those in China who want greater national self-reliance.

If Beijing continues to fight back, Trump has indicated he is willing to cover all Chinese imports, worth roughly US$500 billion in additional tariffs.

Trump’s escalations would quickly turn a needless but miniscule negative shock into a much more significant macroeconomic one. His actions provide an unfortunately vivid example of precisely why tit-for-tat protectionism is such a dangerous route to go down (although Trump is on the verge of escalating things far more rapidly than most probably imagined).

The initial set of tariffs on US$50 billion worth of goods in both directions will do unnecessary but very little damage in the scheme of things. The gross value of those exports equates to only 0.4% of China’s GDP and about 0.25% of America’s respectively. If things stopped there, the overall macroeconomic effects would perhaps be perceptible but ultimately of not much significance.

The effect of tariffs on US$500 billion worth of Chinese imports will obviously be much bigger. How big is difficult to say.

For one, Trump hasn’t specified the tariff increase. If we assume it would be the 10% he is proposing for the next US$200 billion, together with 25% on the initial US$50 billion, that would make the weighted average tariff increase about 11.5%. Sizeable, but much less than the 45% across-the-board tariffs he originally threatened on the campaign trail.

Much harder to gauge is how China would retaliate. US exports to China only amount to about US$130 billion, so China won’t be able to mirror Trump even on his next US$200 billion batch. But they have other options to make up the difference, including simply applying a higher tariff rate and aggressively deploying regulatory levers to arbitrarily harass US firms exporting to China (for example, delaying customs approvals) or those operating in China (for example, increased audits and inspections).

Devaluing the renminbi is a theoretical option, but would be far too risky given the danger of prompting renewed capital outflows (although the RMB would indeed need to weaken on the fundamentals).

In the short-term, the costs will be magnified by the disruption to global supply chains, the incredible uncertainty being generated, and the fear that things will only get worse. Firms would significantly delay or even curtail important investment decisions, as are already starting to do so.

Overall, the impact would be a significant negative shock for both economies (with flow-on effects for the global economy). Though not likely to be recession-inducing, the costs would be large, needless, and could easily escalate further, including with mounting risks of a more globalised trade war.

There is still some scope to make a deal before all this comes to pass (perhaps a face-saving or time-buying deal). But the space to manoeuvre is rapidly shrinking.

As my colleague John Edwards has pointed out (US–China trade: joke’s over), it is not clear what the Trump administration wants that China would realistically give. China might be willing to sweeten the deal it offered earlier, by agreeing to further increase the forced purchase of US goods, and maybe by moving faster on certain liberalising measures.

But Trump’s maximum pressure tactics look more likely to prove highly counterproductive. Xi Jinping presents himself as a strong leader and cannot be seen to be giving in to such blatant foreign bullying (especially given China’s historical sensitivities).

Nor will China budge on core US demands to dismantle its industrial policies. In fact, there is instead real concern Trump’s bullying tactics are only strengthening the hand of those in China who want greater national self-reliance and believe in a more statist approach – to the detriment of those pro-market reformers the US should instead be trying to bolster.

US-China trade: joke’s over

Once entertaining, the Trump administration is becoming unfunny. In less than a week the trade dispute between China and the US has escalated to cover what will quite likely be the entirety of US goods exports to China, and the greater part, if not the whole, of Chinese goods exports to the US.

On Friday, the US finalised additional tariffs on $50 billion of imports from China. The following day, China announced corresponding tariff increases on $50 billion of imports from the US. This week, US President Donald Trump has threatened tariffs on at least another $200 billion, and perhaps $400 billion, of imports from China.

The US imports approximately $500 billion of goods from China per year. China imports $130 billion of goods from the US, so it is already running out of imports to penalise, and is looking for other ways to respond. For Australia, which sends a third of its exports to China, this is no longer even faintly amusing.

We could more clearly see the endgame here if US motives were less obscure.

The first round of the new US tariffs on China, and the first round of China’s countermeasures, will not go into effect until 6 July. The US and China will probably resume negotiations between now and then, perhaps postponing the actual operation of the trade penalties, or limiting their escalation. But it is not at all obvious what a negotiated solution would look like.

Nor is it obvious that the Trump administration is seeking something China can actually deliver. China is no doubt prepared to import more from the US, and perhaps a lot more. It has already offered to do so, without stopping or even slowing the tariff penalties.

The White House says it wants an end to the “forced transfer” of US commercial technologies to China as the price of participating in the China market. That, surely, is to some extent negotiable. So there is likely also room for China to offer up more liberal access to its financial services market, and some parts of its communications and energy industries.

But what is not negotiable for China is relinquishing the ambition of becoming a global leader in advanced technology industries. That is central to its economic progress as Chinese wages rise, the workforce begins to contract, and its labour-intensive manufacturing moves to other countries.

Nor is China likely to publicly accept US instruction on how rapidly and to what extent it introduces more private business competition into areas now controlled by state-owned industries; although there, too, American pressure will be welcomed by many Chinese policymakers.

We could more clearly see the endgame here if US motives were less obscure. If it was the bilateral deficit alone, the dispute would not have come this far. It is possible for China to reduce its bilateral surplus with the US by purchasing more from it and less from other countries.

But the economic arithmetic tells us it is not possible to reduce the US trade deficit with the rest of the world unless the US saves more or invests less. By sharply increasing US fiscal deficits, the Trump administration has reduced saving. A bigger trade deficit will result.

The Trump administration might have found it easier to focus on China if it had not also initiated ongoing trade disputes with Europe, Japan, Canada, and Mexico, all of which are hotly contested and far from being resolved. The US is in trade rows with all of its major trading partners, all at the same time.

The cost of these escalating disputes to the world economy has so far been contained. In a very useful research piece published on Tuesday, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis economists find that, if carried through, the macroeconomic impact of higher US steel and aluminium tariffs, and the equivalent response by Europe, on global growth will be very insignificant.

The trade contest between the US and China is much more consequential because the range of goods covered is much wider, and the tariffs impositions are generally higher. Even so, the modelled losses are not large.

Adding the further $50 billion of tariffs on goods that the US and China have now announced against one another to the reciprocal steel and aluminium tariffs mainly between the US and other advanced economies would see 2030 GDP in the US down by only 0.3% and in China down by only 1.3% from the levels it would otherwise attain.

If the trade conflict continues beyond these announced measures and countermeasures, the impact begins to be very serious indeed. These are all minimum numbers. They do not and cannot take into account the impact of uncertainty on business investment, the cost of disrupting and then replacing supply chains, and the probability of trade conflict engendering political responses that shake the foundations on which global trade and investment are built.

Some of that menace is now evident in volatile financial markets and the sharp declines in affected stocks, such as Boeing and Caterpillar. Much more will be evident between now and 6 July.

Global profit shifting

Australia’s proposed corporate tax cuts aim to attract footloose global capital by offering an internationally competitive tax rate.

Much of the global tax debate, however, focuses on increasing rather than reducing company tax. Specifically, the aim is to discourage companies from shifting profits to tax havens where they pay little or no tax.

New analysis by academic researchers Thomas Tørsløv, Ludvig Wier, and Gabriel Zucman adds compelling data to the case for stronger internationally coordinated action to address this profit shifting.

The broad narrative is familiar, and the tax-avoidance techniques are well known: transfer pricing; intra-company loans; and locating intangible assets (trademarks and intellectual property) in tax havens. From time to time, accidental leaks, such as the Panama Papers, provide detailed insights. But neither the companies nor the tax havens have much interest in providing enough transparency to allow an accurate assessment of the magnitude of profit shifting.

In recent years, however, better data is becoming available thanks to the base erosion and profits shifting (BEPS) project run the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development, work by the International Monetary Fund to improve balance of payments data, and work by the statistical office of the European Union. Financial transactions have two sides: when one party provides transparency, it can shed light the other side of the transaction.

This new data provided the basis for the paper’s revealing forensic analysis. In particular, macro-level data on foreign entities provides detail on company income, including in tax havens.

Company output (which makes up more than half of GDP) comprises profits and wages. The ratio of profits to wages can vary with capital intensity and other factors, but when this ratio is abnormally high, it is a strong indicator that profits have been inflated by transfers from associated companies in other countries.

In normal circumstances, profits tend to be around one third of wages. Local companies in Ireland, a notable tax-shifting destination, match this typical ratio. But foreign-owned companies in Ireland record a ratio of around 800% – a sure sign of massive profit shifting into Ireland to benefit from the extremely low tax rate on company profits. 

Source: Tørsløv, Wier, and Zucman: The missing profits of nations

For Ireland, the transfers are around 100 billion euros annually: so large that the national accounts are clearly distorted. In 2015 Ireland recorded a phenomenal GDP increase of more than 25%. 

More detailed US data demonstrates the growing prevalence of profit shifting by US companies over the past fifty years.

Source: Tørsløv, Wier & Zucman: The missing profits of nations

The authors estimate that at least 40% of multinationals’ profits earned outside their home country are shifted, with the extreme cases being companies with high levels of profit from intangibles and very little conventional capital, such as Google, Facebook, and Apple. The European Union is estimated to lose 20% of its company tax revenue, hence its special interest in requiring Ireland to impose more tax on foreign companies such as Apple.

This analysis suggests that Australia has the wrong priority in corporate tax reform. Of course, Australia participates in the BEPS process, and the Australian Tax Office works hard to address profit shifting (and not only by foreign multinationals, as its current dispute with BHP demonstrates).

But this paper argues that it is profit shifting, not profit competition between countries, that matters.

Keeping track of trade distortions

A tentative ceasefire has been declared in the US–China trade war, giving China time to make adjustments which might placate America. With the emphasis on the US–China bilateral trade balance, there is a good chance the main losers will be third countries: collateral damage in the conflict.

The easiest way for China to reduce its bilateral surplus with the US is to replace imports from third countries, such as Australia, with similar imports from America. Thus, Australian liquefied natural gas and Brazilian soybeans would be replaced by US sources.

China has the administrative means to do this easily, and the cost to it would be minor because these are widely traded, generic commodities. This comes as the the Financial Times reports a US move to demand long-term import deals with China, raising concern about the potential exclusion of fair competition from other countries.

One way that third countries could register a low-key protest against a distortion of the multilateral trade framework would be to track the development of trade in the relevant commodities, comparing past trends in China’s import sources with the new realities. The results of this analysis could be publicised, perhaps spurring other countries to add to the analysis: examining Europe’s aircraft exports, for example.

A further step would be to put this analysis on the agenda for the next G20 meeting.

The model for this initiative is the widely publicised compilation of trade protection measures during the 2007–08 global financial crisis, when there was a concern that countries would attempt to insulate themselves by erecting trade barriers. Whether or not this “naming and shaming” had a big impact is uncertain, but the outcome was clear enough: new protectionist measures were limited.

The Trump trade strategy is based on “divide and rule”, emphasising bilateral deals. Initiating this sort of analysis would be one way that Australia’s Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade could keep the focus on collateral damage to multilateral trade.

This would also send a signal to the Trump administration of the complicated consequences for allies, such as Australia, of picking fights with China.

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