Putting the genie back in the bottle: ruling regimes and the new media in the Arab world
In a new Lowy Institute Analysis Australian journalist David Hardaker examines the growth and impact of the 'new media' - primarily the internet and satellite television - in the Arab world. He explores how autocratic regimes face a difficult challenge of reining in new electronic outlets for dissent while at the same time ensuring that their countries benefit from the global digital economy.
David Hardaker is a former award-winning Middle East correspondent for the Australian Broadcasting Corporation. He speaks Arabic and has lived and worked in the Middle East for a number of years.
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| Reaching out to Pakistan |
Engaging Pakistan The Mumbai terror attacks have once again focused attention on Pakistan's position as both a critical ally in the war on terror and a country in which a number of key terrorist groups have found safe haven. The international community faces a difficult dilemma...
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| Lowy Institute Paper |
Zealous democrats: Islamism and democracy in Egypt, Indonesia and Turkey The question is often asked 'What will Islamists do to democracy?' But it seems equally valid to ask 'What might democracy do to Islamists?' In this new Lowy Institute Paper Anthony Bubalo, Greg Fealy and Whit Mason examine how three different Islamist...
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Wednesday Lunch at Lowy - Bubalo, Fealy and Mason presentations
At this week's Wednesday Lunch, the Lowy Institute for International Policy launched 'Zealous democrats: Islamism and democracy in Egypt, Indonesia and Turkey'. The authors of this new Lowy Institute Paper, Anthony Bubalo, Greg Fealy and Whit Mason, all spoke about their ideas expressed in the Paper.
Their presentations can be heard here:
Zealous democrats - MP3 (19MB)
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Appointments to West Asia program
The Lowy Institute is please to announce the appointment of two new Non-resident Fellows in the West Asia Program, Dr Rodger Shanahan (right) and Whit Mason (left).
For more details, please see the accompanying document.
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Bad moon not rising: the myth of the Shi'a crescent
Accusations that a Shi'a crescent is emerging in the Arab world following the rise of a Shi'a government in Iraq and the actions of Hizbullah in Lebanon, have provoked much discussion and highlighted fears of Iran's co-religionists gaining political power at the expense of the traditional Sunni leadership. In this new Analysis, Dr Rodger Shanahan examines the status of the Shi'a communities in Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and Bahrain and argues that, rather than an emerging Shi'a crescent in the Gulf, there are simply differing national groups struggling to varying degrees to achieve political reform.
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Wednesday Lunch at Lowy - David Hardaker presentation
Satellite television and the internet have broken Arab governments' stranglehold on information, forcing regimes to react in order to control a growing channel for organised dissent. At this week’s Wednesday Lunch at Lowy, acclaimed former ABC journalist David Hardaker explored how the 'new media' in the Middle East is changing Arab politics and what local regimes are trying to do to stop it.
The presentation is available here:
Genie out of the bottle - MP3 (20MB)
The Monthly's SlowTV hosts a video of this presentation here.
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Wednesday Lunch at Lowy - Lydia Khalil presentation
In the Wednesday Lunch on 24 September, Non–resident Fellow Lydia Khalil shared her recent experiences traveling and working in Iraq and Afghanistan and discussed how commonalities can be applied to successful stability operations in these and any other potential conflict zone.
Her presentation can be heard here:
Iraq and Afghanistan - MP3 (18MB)
The Monthly's SlowTV hosts a video of this presentation here.
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So what? Matching policy to Australian interests in West Asia
In a new Lowy institute Policy Brief, West Asia Program Director Anthony Bubalo argues that the evolution of Australian policy in West Asia (the Middle East and Southwest Asia) has lagged behind the maturation of Australian interests in this part of the world. 'So what? Matching policy to Australian interests in West Asia' discusses new elements to a reinvigorated policy framework, including an enhanced dialogue with key regional leaders, a strategic partnership with one or two key countries, the strengthening of non-military cooperation, the leveraging of the growing regional economic role of the Gulf to promote Australian trade, the greater use of multilateral and second-track diplomacy on issues such as energy security and Afghanistan, a greater on-the-ground development presence and an expanded national capacity to analyse and assess regional developments.
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Wednesday Lunch at Lowy - Ambassador Martin Indyk presentation
As the George W Bush Presidency draws to a close, attention is increasingly focused on the likely policies of his successor, particularly in the Middle East. The Lowy Institute was pleased to present at the Wednesday Lowy Lunch on 30 July 2008 a speaker eminently qualified to address this critical topic, Ambassador Martin S. Indyk.
Ambassador Indyk is a Director on the Board of the Lowy Institute for International Policy. He is the Director of the Saban Center for Middle East Policy at the Brookings Institution in Washington DC, and a former US Ambassador to Israel.
His presentation, 'US Middle East policy under a new president', can be heard here:
US Middle East policy under a new president - MP3 (19MB)
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Wednesday Lunch at Lowy - Anthony Bubalo presentation
At the Wednesday Lowy Lunch on 23 July 2008, Anthony Bubalo surveyed the evolving strategic, political and economic landscape in West Asia, a region stretching from Pakistan and Afghanistan across to the eastern shores of the Mediterranean. Bubalo explored how key regional issues and developments, from the nuclear standoff with Iran to the growing financial power of the Persian Gulf's 'city states', will impact on Australian interests in this critical region in the years to come.
His presentation, 'Peace, proliferation and petrol prices: Threats, opportunities and Australian policy in West Asia' can be heard here:
Peace, proliferation and petrol prices - MP3 (19MB)
Map of West Asia - PPT (100KB)
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Hizbullah: walking the Lebanese tightrope
Hizbullah’s month-long war with Israel in 2006, its withdrawal from and effective blocking of the Lebanese government later that year, and its May 2008 armed takeover of West Beirut has shown how politically and militarily powerful this group is. As a consequence it is often held up as the exemplar of radical Islamist organisations. Despite this, some recent miscalculations have shown that even Hizbullah can be vulnerable politically. In this new Lowy Institute Perspectives paper, Chief of Army Visiting Fellow Rodger Shanahan argues that despite its recent successes, like all political parties it faces challenges in the future. Its ability to face these challenges will determine its future viability, but at the moment they are likely to remain a strong force.
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Non-resident fellow in the West Asia Program
The Lowy Institute for International Policy is pleased to announce the appointment of Lydia Khalil as a non-resident fellow in the West Asia Program. Lydia brings to the Institute a wealth of policy and research experience. A key focus of her work for the Institute will be on Iraq.
Lydia was recently appointed as a visiting fellow at Macquarie University’s Centre on Policing, Intelligence and Counterterrorism. Prior to this Lydia was a counterterrorism analyst for the New York Police Department and a policy advisor for the Coalition Provisional Authority in Baghdad. She has also worked as a graduate fellow for the White House Office of Homeland Security and a senior policy associate to the Project on Middle East Democracy (POMED). Lydia holds a B.A. in International Relations from Boston College and a Masters in International Security from Georgetown University. She was born in Cairo, Egypt and is a native Arabic speaker.
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Why the Gulf matters:
crafting an Australian security policy for the Gulf
The imminent withdrawal of Australian combat forces from Iraq does not mean that the Arabian Gulf is peripheral to Australia's strategic interests. Australian forces have been deployed there regularly over the past 20 years, and Australia's and its main trading partners' energy requirements will increasingly be met from that region. In this new Lowy Institute Policy Brief, Chief of Army Visiting Fellow Rodger Shanahan argues that Australia has permanent interests in the region and advocates the establishment of a strategic partnership with the United Arab Emirates.
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Indonesian Caravan
'Joining the Caravan? The Middle East, Islamism and Indonesia', Lowy Institute Paper 5, is now available in Bahasa Indonesia. Published in Indonesia by Mizan, 'Jejak Kafilah' was officially launched by paper co-author Dr Greg Fealy at the Indonesian Academy of Sciences (LIPI) on the 6th of February, 2008. The original English language edition was launched in 2005 and explored the impact of Islamist thinking and models of activism in Indonesia.
Copies of the Indonesian language edition can be obtained through the Indonesian distributor by emailing mizanmu@bdg.centrin.net.id.
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Not a fight to hedge on
In an opinion piece in The Australian, Anthony Bubalo and Rory Medcalf argue that while Prime Minister Kevin Rudd has made Australia's role in Afghanistan conditional, that country is far too important to abandon.
The Australian, 4 April 2008, p. 12
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The next bold stroke
In an opinion piece in the Sydney Morning Herald, West Asia Program Director Anthony Bubalo argues that a reputation for decisive action may prove a curse in these turbulent times.
Sydney Morning Herald, 28 March 2008, pp. 33
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Hawks see end is NIE
In an opinion piece in The Australian, Anthony Bubalo, Program Director West Asia, argues that the chances of a military strike against Iran are now more remote.
The Australian, 5 December 2007, p. 14
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Liquid terror
In a new Lowy Institute Perspectives, Waleed Aly explores the connection between international policy and domestic radicalisation.
A presentation to the Lowy Institute by Waleed Aly on this topic is available at: http://www.lowyinstitute.org/Publication.asp?pid=676
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Lawrence of Arabia is out of place in Iraq
In an opinion piece in the Financial Times, Anthony Bubalo, Program Director West Asia, argues against the current liberal usage of Lawrence's aphorisms to fit our own times.
Financial Times, 12 November 2007, p. 13
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Distinguished Speaker Series - Mr Ali Allawi presentation
On 5 November, as part of its Distinguished Speaker Series, the Lowy Institute for International Policy was proud to host Mr Ali Allawi, a former minister in interim and transitional Iraqi administrations and today a leading international commentator on Iraqi affairs. He is the author of the recently released and much-lauded book, The Occupation of Iraq: Winning the War, Losing the Peace (Yale University Press, 2007).
Mr Allawi spoke on the topic 'Centralism, federalism or confederalism? The options for Iraq'.
His presentation can be heard here:
The options for Iraq - MP3 (20MB)
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Despots, democrats and discontents
The Lowy Institute, in cooperation with the Sydney Democracy Forum, explored the state of West Asian democracy in a panel discussion held on Tuesday 2 October, 2007 at the Institute. The session compared and contrasted two different ends of the democratic spectrum in the region. It assessed the state of the region and the world’s largest democracy, India, and it explored democratic prospects in Egypt, a country that had, until recently, been lauded by the US government as an example of positive, if incremental, political reform. The session also explored the role of the international community in fostering democratisation in this strategically critical region.
The panel speakers were Anthony Bubalo, Niraja Gopal Jayal and John Keane.
The presentations from the seminar can be heard here:
Despots, democrats and discontents - MP3 (41MB)
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Iraq and Afghanistan
The Lowy Institute Voters' Guide to International Policy addresses the sort of questions we should be putting to our political leaders.
Section 5 of the Guide, 'Iraq and Afghanistan', by Anthony Bubalo, Program Director West Asia, is available here.
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Wednesday Lunch at Lowy - Whit Mason presentation
On 6 October, Pakistan, a nuclear power of over 160 million people riven by political and religious passions, goes to polls. At the Wednesday Lunch at Lowy on 3 October, Whit Mason provided a preview of the elections and the challenges faced by incumbent President Pervez Musharraf, examining what is at stake in this strategically critical country.
Whit Mason is a writer and consultant on international affairs, who recently returned from Pakistan following a year-long assignment with USAID. Together with Lowy Institute Program Director Anthony Bubalo and ANU Indonesia specialist, Dr Greg Fealy, Whit is currently writing a new Lowy Institute Paper exploring the relationship between Islamism and democracy.
His presentation can be heard here:
The perils of Pervez - MP3 (19MB)
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What lies ahead? The Iraq war and international politics
Policymakers are understandably focused on the situation in Iraq, debating whether to withdraw troops or 'stay the course'. Yet even as the conflict continues to rage, it is important to start thinking about the war's broader impact on international politics. With this in mind the Lowy Institute publishes here the views of a range of specialists, including the respected American commentators William Kristol and Gideon Rose, on the likely impact of the Iraq war on the role of the US as a world power, on the Middle East and on Australia foreign policy.
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Wednesday Lunch at Lowy - Waleed Aly presentation
On 19 September at the Wednesday Lunch at Lowy, Waleed Aly, in a presentation entitled 'Liquid terror: the dynamics of home-grown radicalisation', examined the contentious issue of radicalisation in Western Muslim communities.
Waleed Aly was a board member of the Islamic Council of Victoria for over four years and comments frequently for the media on a range of issues relating to Islam and Western Muslims. In 2007, he was named one of The Bulletin magazine's 'Smart 100'. He is the author of the recently published 'People Like Us: How arrogance is dividing Islam and the West'.
His presentation can be heard here:
Liquid terror - MP3 (20MB)
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Distinguished Speaker Series - Dr Ezzedine Choukri-Fishere presentation
As a part of its Distinguished Speaker Series, the Lowy Institute for International Policy was proud to host Dr Ezzedine Choukri-Fishere, Counselor for Middle East Peace Process and Regional Security in the Cabinet of the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Egypt. Dr Choukri-Fishere discussed Hamas' military takeover of the Gaza Strip and examined its implications for a two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
His speech can be heard here:
After Gaza: How to salvage the two-state solution - MP3 (19MB)
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Despots, democrats and discontents
The Lowy Institute, in cooperation with the Sydney Democracy Forum, explored the state of West Asian democracy in a panel discussion held on Tuesday 2 October, 2007 at the Institute. The session compared and contrasted two different ends of the democratic spectrum in the region. It assessed the state of the region and the world’s largest democracy, India, and it explored democratic prospects in Egypt, a country that had, until recently, been lauded by the US government as an example of positive, if incremental, political reform. The session also explored the role of the international community in fostering democratisation in this strategically critical region.
The panel speakers were Anthony Bubalo, Niraja Gopal Jayal and John Keane.
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US boosts military funding in the Middle East
Anthony Bubalo, Program Director, West Asia at the Lowy Institute, was interviewed on ABC Radio's The World Today program about the increase in funding by the US to its allies in the Middle East.
The interview is available at: http://www.abc.net.au/worldtoday/content/2007/s1992835.htm
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Iraq and its consequences
On Friday 29 June, the Lowy Institute for International Policy explored the longer term implications of the Iraq war in a conference entitle 'What lies ahead? The Iraq war and international politics'. The conference featured two leading American commentators, William Kristol, editor of the Weekly Standard, and Gideon Rose, managing editor of Foreign Affairs, who discussed the consequences of the war for US power and policy.
The Lowy Institute gratefully acknowledges the assistance of the US State Department in providing the videoconference link for this conversation.
Hear their discussion at:
What lies ahead? - MP3 (28MB)
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Gaza policy just leads full circle
In an opinion piece for The Australian Financial Review, West Asia Program Director, Anthony Bubalo, explores the implications of Hamas' military takeover of Gaza.
The Australian Financial Review, 19 June 2007, p. 63
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A long hot summer
In a new Lowy Institute Policy Brief, William Maley and Daoud Yaqub explore the implications of the looming Taliban Spring offensive on the international reconstruction and security effort in Afghanistan. Maley and Yaqub argue that a more aggressive posture by Coalition forces toward the Taliban and more concerted international pressure on Pakistan are needed to ensure that Afghanistan does not once again become a safe haven for international terrorist organisations.
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Wednesday Lunch at Lowy - Professor James Piscatori presentation
On 30 May at the Wednesday Lowy Lunch, at 31 Bligh Street, Professor James Piscatori discussed Iraq and the future of political Islam.
Professor Piscatori is a Fellow of Wadham College, Oxford, Senior Tutor at the Oxford Centre for Islamic Studies, and Visiting Professor at the Centre for Arab and Islamic Studies, ANU. His most recent work is Monarchies and Nations: Globalisation and Identity in the Arab States of the Gulf.
His presentation is available here:
Iraq and the future of political Islam - MP3 (21MB)
The text is also available for download:
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Wednesday Lunch at Lowy - Daoud Yaqub presentation
On 28 March at the Wednesday Lunch at Lowy, Daoud Yaqub spoke on the topic: 'A long hot summer ahead for Afghanistan'. He discussed the looming spring offensive by the Taliban, including its implications for the reconstruction and security effort in Afghanistan, and what the international community needs to do to help the Karzai government meet this challenge.
Yaqub is co-author with Bill Maley of a new Lowy Institute Policy Brief, 'A Long Hot Summer: Crisis and Opportunity in Afghanistan', available at: http://www.lowyinstitute.org/Publication.asp?pid=555
His presentation is available here:
A Long Hot Summer: Crisis and Opportunity in Afghanistan - MP3 (22MB)
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Success may bring dangers of its own
In this opinion piece in The Australian, Anthony Bubalo, Program Director for West Asia, writes that signs of an easing in the Iraq security situation raise questions about what would happen if the surge in US troops was a success.
The Australian, 20 March 2007, p. 12
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Interview: Anthony Bubalo
Anthony Bubalo was interviewed on ABC Radio National's PM program about the situation in Iraq on the fourth anniversary of the commencement of the war.
The interview is available at: http://www.abc.net.au/pm/content/2007/s1877149.htm
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Reinventing 'West Asia'
In conjunction with the launch of the Lowy Institute's West Asia program, Anthony Bubalo, Director of the new program, argues why the Middle East and South Asia increasingly comprise one strategically coherent region, 'West Asia', and explores the policy significance of this for Australia.
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Wednesday Lunch at Lowy - Anthony Bubalo presentation
On 21 February at the Wednesday Lunch at Lowy, Anthony Bubalo launched the Lowy Institute's fifth and newest program, the West Asia Program, incorporating the Middle East and South Asia. In his presentation Anthony explored the reasons why, today, it makes less sense to view these two regions separately, at least from a strategic perspective. He argued that the issues that increasingly gave 'West Asia' coherence as a single region were the same issues that were making the region an enduring part of Australia's strategic calculus.
Anthony's presentation can be heard here:
Re-inventing 'West Asia' - MP3 (20MB)
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Engaging Iran is risky, but confrontation is even riskier
In an op-ed in the Sydney Morning Herald, Lowy Institute Research Fellow Anthony Bubalo examines the implications of Washington's nuclear deal with Pyongyang for its efforts to deal with Iran's nuclear program and argues that the time is right for the US to start talking to Tehran as well.
Sydney Morning Herald, 15 February 2007, p. 13
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Wednesday Lunch at Lowy - Lowy Institute Scholars presentation
At the Wednesday Lunch at Lowy on 7 February, the Lowy Institute's scholars discussed what we should be keeping an eye out for in international policy in 2007.
Dr Michael Fullilove, the Program Director for Global Issues, discussed global trends and the United States. Mark Thirlwell, the Program Director for the International Economy, discussed some of the big questions facing the global economy in 2007. Anthony Bubalo, Research Fellow, examined the year ahead in the Middle East. Dr Malcolm Cook, Program Director Asia & the Pacific, predicted what will surprise us in East Asia and the South Pacific.
Their presentations can be heard here:
The year ahead - 2007 - MP3 (20MB)
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New rules for a new 'Great Game'
Energy insecurity, driven by high demand and uncertainty over supply, is fuelling a surging interest in equity in Middle East oil fields among major energy consumers, particularly in Northeast Asia. There is a risk that the resultant competition for oil and other energy resources in the Middle East will aggravate existing tensions or even create new conflicts. In a new Policy Brief, Anthony Bubalo and Mark Thirlwell argue that the G-20, meeting in Melbourne this weekend, should take a leading role in ensuring that energy insecurity does not become a global strategic problem.
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Summit should put economics back into oil
In this opinion piece in The Sydney Morning Herald, Anthony Bubalo and Mark Thirlwell, drawing on their latest Policy Brief, argue that this weekend's G-20 meeting is an opportunity to reduce political conflict over resources.
Sydney Morning Herald, 16 November 2006, p. 13
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Joining the caravan? The Middle East, Islamism and Indonesia
September 11 2001 and the Bali Bombing in November 2002 evoked images of a militant Islamist wave sweeping the globe from the Middle East, radicalising once peaceful Muslim communities around the world. A new Lowy Institute Paper by Anthony Bubalo and Greg Fealy critically examines the truth of this perception by exploring the impact a number of Islamist and 'neo-fundamentalist' currents from the Middle East have had in Indonesia.
To order a hard copy of this publication click here.
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Football diplomacy
While Australian governments have successfully built pragmatic ties with Asian leaders, a popular dimension to our engagement with Asia has in many respects been missing. This didn't matter greatly in the past, but today public opinion is increasingly a factor in foreign policy. A new opportunity to deepen people-to-people links with Asia has arrived in the form of Australia's recent admission into the Asian Football Confederation.
Drawing on ideas that emerged from the Lowy Institute's Football Diplomacy seminar last October, this Policy Brief examines how Australia can best use this new sporting relationship with Asia to enhance its regional image and engagement.
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Comrades on and off the pitch
In an opinion piece in today's Australian, Anthony Bubalo explains why Australia's entry into the Asian Football Confederation will revolutionise Australia's relations with Asia.
The Australian, 30 September 2005, p. 14
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Iran, the international community and the nuclear issue: where to next?
In a new Lowy Institute Analysis, Anthony Bubalo and Michael Fullilove examine the likely trajectory of efforts to resolve the Iranian nuclear question, an issue that is likely to lead the international foreign policy agenda in 2006. The authors canvass a range of scenarios including IAEA and Security Council resolutions, sanctions and the unilateral use of force.
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Words find their mark in power stakes
In this opinion piece, Anthony Bubalo writes that Iran's outspoken President is taking on his enemies in the republic's establishment.
Sydney Morning Herald, 5 January 2006, p. 11
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Democratisation dilemmas in the Middle East
Islamist election victories in Iraq, Egypt and the Palestinian territories have intensified the controversy over whether Washington's democratisation push in the Middle East is transforming the region for the better or simply empowering America's enemies.
On 15th March 2006 at Wednesday Lunch at Lowy, Ambassador Martin Indyk, Lowy Institute Board Member and Director of the Saban Center for Middle East Studies at the Brookings Institution and Anthony Bubalo, Lowy Institute Research Fellow, debated the pros and cons of the Bush Administration's great democratisation gamble.
Anthony Bubalo opened the debate.
Click on the link to listen to the debate now or right click to save the audio file.
Bubalo Indyk Debate - MP3 64K (30MB)
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Fuelling confrontation: Iran, the US and the oil weapon
In this new Lowy Institute Analysis, Anthony Bubalo, Michael Fullilove and Mark Thirlwell explore the prospect and implications of Iran's using oil as a weapon in its current confrontation with the international community over the nuclear issue.
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Asia's alliance with the Middle East threatens America
Anthony Bubalo explores an emerging web of ties between the Middle East and Asia that will have a profound impact on US power in both regions.
An edited version of this opinion piece was published in the Financial Times, 6 October 2005, p. 15
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Energy insecurity: China, India and Middle East oil
Anthony Bubalo and Mark Thirlwell examine China and India's growing thirst for imported oil, particularly from the Middle East, and consider some of the possible longer term strategic implications associated with this trend in a new Lowy Institute Issues Brief.
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Let's stop looking with stars and stripes in our eyes
Anthony Bubalo writes that Bush might have left his mark, but the shake-ups in the Middle East are not all about the US.
Sydney Morning Herald, 11 March 2005, p.11
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Why West should come to Islamist party
Greg Fealy and Anthony Bubalo argue that a fear of Islamist electoral victories should not be an obstacle to the West's support for democratisation in the Middle East or elsewhere in the Muslim World.
The Australian, 29 March 2005, p. 11
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Where to now on Iran?
On 30th August at Wednesday Lunch at Lowy, Research Fellow Anthony Bubalo explored the likely trajectory of the international community's on-going dispute with Iran over its nuclear program, following Tehran's refusal to accept calls for a suspension of its uranium enrichment activities.
His presentation can be heard here:
Iran: Where to next? - MP3 (19MB)
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Israel's pursuit of Hizballah - opinion piece
In an opinion piece in the Sydney Morning Herald of 18 July, Anthony Bubalo, Research Fellow at the Lowy Institute, argues that Israel is pursuing a two-pronged strategy against Hizballah in Lebanon.
Sydney Morning Herald, 18 July 2006, p. 11
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US proposal for nuclear talks with Iran
In an opinion piece published on 2 June in The Sydney Morning Herald, Anthony Bubalo and Michael Fullilove examine the implications of Washington's surprise offer to negotiate with Tehran over the nuclear issue.
Sydney Morning Herald, 2 June 2006, p. 13
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The people have spoken: elections and the future of Israeli-Palestinian peacemaking
In this new Lowy Institute Perspective, Research Fellow Anthony Bubalo examines the results of recent Palestinian and Israeli elections and their implications for Israeli-Palestinian peacemaking.
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Israel's double disengagement
In an opinion piece published in the Sydney Morning Herald, Anthony Bubalo explores the implications of the Israeli election result.
Sydney Morning Herald, 30 March 2006, p. 13
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It's not necessary to go all the way with the USA
In this opinion piece, an edited version of which appeared in the Sydney Morning Herald on 9 March, Anthony Bubalo welcomes the elevation of the Middle East in the Australian government's strategic priorities, but argues this will require some deeper and innovative thinking on Australia's ties to the region.
Sydney Morning Herald, 9 March 2006, p. 13
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Wary watch on Hamas victory
Writing in the Brisbane Courier-Mail, Lowy Institute Research Fellow Anthony Bubalo examines whether any positives can be wrought from Hamas' landslide victory in last week's Palestinian elections.
Courier-Mail, 30 January 2006, p. 9
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A shrewd leader falls and suddenly the also-rans are leading the race
Anthony Bubalo writes in this opinion piece that the charisma and political wiliness of Ariel Sharon are difficult acts to emulate.
Sydney Morning Herald, 6 January 2006, p. 9
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Iranian nuclear program the world's next hot potato
Despite Iran's claim of not developing weapons, defusing its nuclear ambitions may be the defining item on next year's international policy agenda, suggest Michael Fullilove and Anthony Bubalo in this opinion piece.
The Australian, 20 December 2005, p. 12
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Israel's pragmatic hawk makes a dovish move
In this opinion piece, Lowy Institute Research Fellow Anthony Bubalo writes that Ariel Sharon's latest ploy should be viewed in a positive light.
Sydney Morning Herald, 24 November 2005, p. 15
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The day after
Anthony Bubalo considers what is at stake in this week's unilateral withdrawal by Israel from Gaza and parts of the West Bank, and ways that the international community, including Australia, can help make the process a success.
An edited extract of the following piece appeared in the Australian Financial Review on Tuesday 16 August.
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Blair's front line
In this article, two Lowy Institute analysts examine the implications of the London bombings. Anthony Bubalo and Dr Michael Fullilove, respectively the research fellow and program director for global issues at the Institute, argue that in terms of both explanations for and implications of the bombings, attention needs to be directed at home in Britain as well as abroad.
The Australian, 9 July 2005, p. 22
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Building a democratic Palestine: an Australian contribution to legal and institutional development in the Palestinian territories
Legal and institutional reform in the Palestinian territories is a critical and often overlooked component of the effort to reach a peaceful settlement between Israel and the Palestinians. This Issues Brief by Anthony Bubalo explores the importance of such reforms in the context of current efforts to end violence against Israel and provide Palestinians with greater confidence in their economic and political future. It argues that Australia should join other donors in contributing what assistance it can to help Palestinians strengthen the rule of law and build strong public institutions.
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War or peace: a struggle for peace continues
Anthony Bubalo writes on what the future holds for Palestine without Yasser Arafat.
Sundey Telegraph, 14 November 2004, p. 93
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Beyond Arafat
Anthony Bubalo, research fellow, argues that Yasser Arafat's death could have longer term positive implications for both Palestinian political reform and efforts to resolve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, but in the short term the impact will be more limited. Arafat's immediate successors will not be able to end the current chaos in the West Bank and Gaza Strip. Nor are the fundamentals of the current impasse with Israel likely to be overcome.
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Arafat's death wouldn't solve main problem
Anthony Bubalo, research fellow at the Lowy Institute, assesses the implications of Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat's looming death on both the internal Palestinian situation and efforts to end the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
Australian Financial Review, 8 November 2004, p. 63
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Step back and take a look at the smaller picture
Anthony Bubalo and Michael Fullilove argue that Australia's response to the Jakarta embassy bombing should not emphasise global considerations at the expense of regional factors.
Sydney Morning Herald, 11 September 2004
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Putting terrorism into perspective
In an opinion article Anthony Bubalo welcomes the Federal Government's release of a white paper on terrorism as an important contribution to the public discussion of this critical issue. That discussion needs, however, to go beyond the parameters of the white paper to a consideration of where terrorism is situated in the broader spectrum of strategic challenges that we face.
Sydney Morning Herald, 16 July 2004
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Israel's withdrawal from Gaza: a role for Australia?
This paper explores the possibility that further Australian military forces will be sought for the Middle East, in this case for a peacekeeping force in the Gaza Strip.
Despite the defeat of Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon's plan for a unilateral withdrawal from Gaza in a Likud Party referendum, the Israeli public will continue to press for a withdrawal, and, in all likelihood, it will occur. But the withdrawal process itself raises a number of questions and it is likely that international assistance, in the form of a small peacekeeping force, will be required. If this occurs, Australia may be sought out as one of only a few countries whose contribution would be acceptable to Israel and the Palestinians.
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