The sting of climate change
Climate change is not only affecting where people live and prosper but also where mosquitoes do. This is bad news for northern Australia and Australia's northern neighbours. In a new policy brief, Dr Sarah Potter, a malaria research scientist, analyses how climate change will likely affect the spread of malaria and dengue in maritime Southeast Asia and the Pacific Islands and how Australia itself is at greater risk of outbreaks of these diseases.
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| How to include terrestrial carbon in developing nations in the climate change solution |
Wednesday Lunch at Lowy - Ralph Ashton & Warwick McKibbin presentation At the Wednesday Lunch at Lowy on 19 November, Ralph Ashton, Fellow in the Climate and Energy Program at The Australian National University and Warwick McKibbin, Lowy Institute Professorial Fellow discuss how to include terrestrial carbon in developing...
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| Pacific regional challenges |
Distinguished Speaker Series: Sir Michael Somare presentation On 7 November 2008, as part of our Distinguished Speaker Series, the Lowy Institute hosted The Grand Chief, Rt. Hon Sir Michael Somare GCMG CH, Prime Minister of Papua New Guinea. The title of Sir Michael Somare's lecture was 'Pacific Regional Challenges'. He...
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| Allan Gyngell opinion piece |
Australia deserves a voice in reshaping the world In an opinion piece in The Australian Financial Review, Lowy Institute Executive Director Allan Gyngell argues that the coming summit on the global financial crisis presents a once in a lifetime opportunity for Australia.
Australian Financial Review, 30...
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| Milton Osborne article |
Under-threat Mekong River faces new challenges In an article in The Nation (Thailand), Lowy Institute Visiting Fellow Milton Osborne writes on the rapidly expanding development of hydropower in the Lower Mekong Basin.
The Nation, 12 November 2008
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Zealous democrats: Islamism and democracy in Egypt, Indonesia and Turkey
The question is often asked 'What will Islamists do to democracy?' But it seems equally valid to ask 'What might democracy do to Islamists?' In this new Lowy Institute Paper Anthony Bubalo, Greg Fealy and Whit Mason examine how three different Islamist movements, the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt, the Prosperous Justice Party in Indonesia and the Justice and Development Party have sought to adapt to democratic politics and how in turn electoral or democratic participation has shaped the evolution of their ideology, policies and activism.
An executive summary of the Paper is available here. - PDF (147KB)
To order a hard copy of this publication click here.
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Hope or glory? The presidential election, US foreign policy and Australia
In a new Lowy Institute Analysis, Dr Michael Fullilove, Program Director for Global Issues at the Lowy Institute and a Visiting Fellow at the Brookings Institution in Washington, DC, examines the foreign policies of US presidential candidates Barack Obama and John McCain and assesses the implications for Australia.
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We'll have to vie for Obama's attention
In an opinion piece in The Australian, Dr Michael Fullilove, Program Director Global Issues and a visiting fellow at The Brookings Institution in Washington, DC, argues that Australia will need 'sharp elbows and pointy ideas' to be heard in Washington.
The Australian, 17 November 2008, p. 8
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Wednesday Lunch at Lowy - Mark Thirlwell presentation
At the Wednesday Lunch at Lowy on 29 October, Mark Thirlwell, Director of the Institute's International Economy program, looked at the resumed battle for the Commanding Heights of the world economy, and asked whether the apparent victory for the free market secured in the 1980s and 1990s is now about to be overturned in favour of the state.
His presentation can be heard here:
The end of the free market? - MP3 (20MB)
The Monthly's SlowTV hosts a video of this presentation here.
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After Bush: how to repair US alliances
In an opinion piece in The Christian Science Monitor, Dr Michael Fullilove, Program Director Global Issues and a visiting fellow at The Brookings Institution in Washington, DC, argues that whoever wins the US presidential election, either candidate would need to work hard to reinvigorate America's alliances.
Christian Science Monitor, 4 November 2008, p. 9
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Lowy Institute partnership with Nuclear Threat Initiative
The Lowy Institute for International Policy has joined the US-based Nuclear Threat Initiative (NTI) as a partner in research and dialogue to reduce nuclear dangers.
With a grant from the Nuclear Threat Initiative, the Lowy Institute will be a partner to NTI's Nuclear Security Project, which builds on the 2007 Wall Street Journal op-ed 'A World Free of Nuclear Weapons' by George Shultz, William Perry, Henry Kissinger and Sam Nunn. The Lowy Institute’s work, to be managed by its International Security Program, will involve consultations on nuclear issues with officials, experts and opinion-makers in Australia and key Asian states, public lectures on the challenge of nuclear non-proliferation and disarmament, and the publication of original research proposing fresh policy approaches.
Further details of the Lowy-NTI partnership are available in this press release.
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Expecting the unexpected
To estimate the emissions reductions and costs of a climate policy, analysts usually compare a policy scenario with a baseline scenario of future economic conditions without the policy. Both scenarios require assumptions about the future course of numerous factors such as population growth, technical change, and non-climate policies like taxes. The results are only reliable to the extent that the future turns out to be reasonably close to the assumptions that went into the model.
In this Working Paper the authors examine the effects of unanticipated macroeconomic shocks to growth in developing countries or a global financial crisis on the performance of three climate policy regimes: a globally-harmonised carbon tax; a global cap and trade system; and the McKibbin-Wilcoxen hybrid.
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A world of policy differences
In an article in the News Review section of The Sydney Morning Herald, Dr Michael Fullilove writes that the foreign policies of the two US presidential candidates would not be as similar as some analysts predict.
Sydney Morning Herald, 1 November 2008, p. 29
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Engineering political stability in Solomon Islands
The Lowy Institute and the Solomon Islands Working Committee on Political Party Integrity Reform held a conference in Honiara on 24 and 25 September 2008 to explore the potential for reforms to engineer greater political stability in Solomon Islands. The conference sought to identify mechanisms to address the endemic problems that have plagued the sustainable development and prosperity of Solomon Islands, including disparities between the demands of the Westminster system and society's expectations of members of parliament, weak political parties, flaws in the electoral system, frivolous use of motions of no confidence and corrupt practices.
The report of the conference and options for reform proposed by participants have been published in this Lowy Institute Perspective.
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The 2008 Lowy Institute Poll: Australia and the world
The fourth annual Lowy Institute Poll surveys Australian public opinion on a range of foreign policy issues and contains a number of new questions this year. These cover attitudes towards Japanese whaling, foreign investment in Australia, China, the US presidential election, climate change, Australia’s international reputation under the new Rudd government and uranium.
The Poll also repeated a number of questions asked in previous years, allowing us to track some interesting changes in public opinion.
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Australia: Allied in transition
The Seattle-based National Bureau of Asian Research publishes Strategic Asia, an annual assessment of Asian security issues affecting the United States. The 2008-09 volume in the series, titled Challenges and Choices, is aimed at providing guidance for the next US President on key decisions regarding Asia policy. The book includes a chapter on the Australia-US alliance by International Security Program Director Rory Medcalf.
An executive summary of that chapter is available here.
For more details of the book, please see:
http://www.nbr.org/publications/book.aspx?ID=517
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Michael Fullilove on Brookings panel
On 23 October, Dr Michael Fullilove organised and appeared on a panel at the Brookings Institution in Washington, DC. The panel's title was 'The U.S. Presidential Election: Observations From the Outside Looking In'. The panel was chaired by Carlos Pascual, Vice President and Director of Foreign Policy at Brookings. The other speakers were Justin Vaisse, a Brookings Senior Fellow and French national; and Keiko Iizuka, a Brookings Visiting Fellow and Japanese national.
A transcript is available at:
http://www.brookings.edu/events/2008/1023_world_observations.aspx
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Wednesday Lunch at Lowy - Bubalo, Fealy and Mason presentations
At this week's Wednesday Lunch, the Lowy Institute for International Policy launched 'Zealous democrats: Islamism and democracy in Egypt, Indonesia and Turkey'. The authors of this new Lowy Institute Paper, Anthony Bubalo, Greg Fealy and Whit Mason, all spoke about their ideas expressed in the Paper.
Their presentations can be heard here:
Zealous democrats - MP3 (19MB)
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Distinguished Speaker Series - Lt Gen Ken Gillespie presentation
As part of its Distinguished Speaker Series, the Lowy Institute hosted an address by the Chief of the Australian Army, Lieutenant General K. J. Gillespie AO DSC CSM.
In the last decade the Australian Defence Force has put a great weight of effort into activities such as stabilisation and reconstruction. In his speech, the Chief of Army provided his insights into how reconstruction activities could be better implemented, and how a whole of nation approach is likely to offer a more comprehensive way of achieving desired national objectives in the rebuilding of disrupted societies.
His presentation can be heard here:
Reconstruction and the whole of government approach - MP3 (20MB)
A transcript of his presentation is available for download.
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Wednesday Lunch at Lowy - David Hardaker presentation
Satellite television and the internet have broken Arab governments' stranglehold on information, forcing regimes to react in order to control a growing channel for organised dissent. At this week’s Wednesday Lunch at Lowy, acclaimed former ABC journalist David Hardaker explored how the 'new media' in the Middle East is changing Arab politics and what local regimes are trying to do to stop it.
The presentation is available here:
Genie out of the bottle - MP3 (20MB)
The Monthly's SlowTV hosts a video of this presentation here.
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Wednesday Lunch at Lowy - Dr Geoff Raby presentation
This year, China has been on public international display like no other time since the communists took power in 1949. Beijing hosted the Olympic and para-Olympic Games and 2008 is the thirtieth anniversary of China's open door economic policy reforms launched under Deng Xiaoping. The technical and organisational success of the Olympics will come to symbolise the transformational success of these policies. China today is unrecognisable from what it was before 'the door was opened'.
At the Wednesday Lunch at Lowy on 8 October, Dr Geoff Raby, the Australian Ambassador to the People's Republic of China, examined the questions: How much has China really changed? Is China a case of the more things change, the more they stay the same?
His presentation can be heard here:
How much has China really changed? - MP3 (17MB)
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Asian military modernisation
In this Lowy Institute Perspective, Visiting Fellow Ric Smith examines the patterns in Asian military spending in recent years. He demonstrates that the region's military modernisation does not equate with an arms race. This publication was originally a presentation delivered to the International Institute of Strategic Studies' 50th Anniversary Global Strategic Review in Geneva in early September 2008.
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Beyond good governance
Australian aid has not been effective in helping the Pacific Islands region make significant progress in meeting the Millennium Development Goals. The focus of aid on improving public sector capacity and governance has not stimulated sufficient private sector participation to meet the development aspirations of Pacific Island populations.
In this Lowy Institute Policy Brief, The Myer Foundation Melanesia Program Director Jenny Hayward-Jones argues that Australian aid should be used to leverage growing corporate interest in reducing global poverty into investment in the Pacific - to create real income-earning opportunities for a burgeoning youth population and underscore a solid base for improved service delivery.
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Wednesday Lunch at Lowy - Dr Marcus Noland presentation
On 1 October 2008, Dr Marcus Noland, Senior Fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, spoke about North Korea and how its nuclear ambitions and geographic position draw the attention of the other powers in Northeast Asia.
His PowerPoint presentation is available here:
North Korea opens - PPT (4MB)
His presentation, entitled 'North Korea opens', can be heard here:
North Korea opens - MP3 (21MB)
The Monthly's SlowTV hosts a video of this presentation here.
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Wednesday Lunch at Lowy - Lydia Khalil presentation
In the Wednesday Lunch on 24 September, Non–resident Fellow Lydia Khalil shared her recent experiences traveling and working in Iraq and Afghanistan and discussed how commonalities can be applied to successful stability operations in these and any other potential conflict zone.
Her presentation can be heard here:
Iraq and Afghanistan - MP3 (18MB)
The Monthly's SlowTV hosts a video of this presentation here.
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