Lowy Lecture Series - Benjamin Goldsmith presentation
At the Lowy Lecture on 2 May 2012, Benjamin Goldsmith presented findings from a project to develop a quantitative forecasting tool for serious political instability, mass atrocities, and genocide, including software which should be of use to policy-makers thinking ahead on a 1-5 year time horizon. The project, 'Understanding and Forecasting Political Instability, Mass Atrocities, and Genocide: Combining Social Science and Machine Learning Approaches' combines expertise from political science and computer science.
His presentation can be heard here:
Forecasting genocide and politicide for early warning and prevention - MP3 (20MB)
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| Globalization and disease: the case of SARS |
McKibbin Working Paper announced as one of 50 most influential articles by MIT Press A 2004 Lowy Institute Working Paper in International Economics by Warwick McKibbin and Jong-Wha Lee, 'Globalization and disease: the case of SARS', which was later published in Asian Economic Papers, Vol. 3 (1), Winter, 2004, was announced in May 2012 by MIT...
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| Asia-Pacific security |
An Australian perspective on US rebalancing towards Asia In this Policy Q and A publication by the National Bureau of Asian Research, the Lowy Institute’s Rory Medcalf examines the extent and implications of the US 'pivot' strategy towards the Asia-Pacific, and in particular Australia’s role and responses.
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| Nuclear arms control |
Disarming doubt: the future of extended nuclear deterrence in East Asia
Strategic uncertainty in East Asia is leaving nations look to their defences. At the same time, the United States is leading a push to reduce the role of nuclear weapons in international security. In this major international research report, the Lowy...
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| Hugh White opinion piece |
Army should be careful with its aim In an opinion piece in The Age, Lowy Institute Visiting Fellow Hugh White argues that the Army's amphibious-power ambitions do not make strategic sense.
The Age, 1 May 2012, p. 11
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A paper-thin defence
In an opinion piece in The Age, Sam Roggeveen, editor of The Interpreter, writes that Canberra stumbles upon a few good military policies, but that our capability is weak.
The Age, 4 May 2012, p. 11
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Is China ready for global economic leadership?
 The East Asia Program at the Lowy Institute for International Policy was pleased to host the third China Changing Lecture, presented by Professor David Daokui Li on 19 April 2012.
In this year's China Changing Lecture, Professor Li discussed China's role in the changing world economy. Dr Li's presentation was entitled: 'Is China ready for global economic leadership?'
Transcript: China Changing Lecture 2012 - PDF (162KB)
Podcast: China Changing Lecture 2012 - MP3 (22MB)
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Disarming doubt: the future of extended nuclear deterrence in East Asia
 Disarming Doubt, a new book-length report produced by the Lowy Institute in partnership with the Center for the Promotion of Disarmament and Non-Proliferation, Japan Institute of International Affairs, provides a window into the debates about security, disarmament and extended deterrence in Japan, South Korea and Australia. The book was launched in Canberra on 19th April 2012.
The panel discussion at the launch can be heard here:
Disarming doubt: the future of extended nuclear deterrence in East Asia - MP3 (23MB)
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Calm assessment of U.S. alliance needed
In an opinion piece in The Australian, Lowy Institute Executive Director Michael Wesley argues that emotion should not rule in the difficult debate about Australia's alliance with the United States.
The Australian, 27 April 2012, p. 10
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Drawing the line
In his latest column for the magazine American Review, the Lowy Institute’s Rory Medcalf looks at way social media is affecting international relations in 2012: notably in relation to US diplomacy, Chinese political instability, and the US-based online civil society crusade against African warlord Kony. The article can be accessed here.
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Turn up the volume on TV to the region
In an opinion piece in The Age, Lowy Institute Research Fellow Alex Oliver argues that since other countries take global broadcasting seriously, why don't we?
The Age, 27 April 2012, p. 15
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Lowy Lecture Series - His Excellency Nasir A. Andisha presentation
As a part of its Lowy Lecture Series on 18 April 2012, the Lowy Institute was pleased to host His Excellency Nasir A. Andisha, Afghanistan's Ambassador to Australia. Ambassador Andisha discussed how a lack of clear communications, inconsistency and the sending of mixed messages are undermining NATO/ISAF'S strategy in Afghanistan.
His presentation can be heard here:
Transition vs exit: what is the strategy in Afghanistan? - MP3 (22MB)
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After the fireworks, time for some diplomacy
In this opinion piece in leading Indian daily newspaper The Hindu, the Lowy Institute's Rory Medcalf and Fiona Cunningham make the case for India and China to build a stabilising nuclear dialogue now that the Agni V missile test has demonstrated India's ability to build a nuclear deterrent against China.
The Hindu, 20 April 2012
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Lowy Lecture Series - Dr Alexey Muraviev and Professor Graeme Gill presentations
At the Lowy Lecture on 12 April 2012, Russia experts Dr Alexey Muraviev and Professor Graeme Gill discussed what a Putin presidency will mean for the world and the Asia-Pacific region.
Their presentations can be heard here:
Putin, the elections, and Russia 2018: Implications for Australia and the region - MP3 (23MB)
You can download the slideshow here - PPT (3MB)
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Lowy Lecture Series - Dr Donghyun Park and Emma Veve presentations
The Asian Development Bank unveiled its 2012 Asian Development Outlook at the Wednesday Lowy Lecture on 11 April 2012. The Asian Development Outlook is the ADB's annual flagship economic report which provides a comprehensive analysis of macroeconomic issues in developing Asia and Pacific.
Their presentations can be heard here:
Asian Development Outlook 2012: Confronting rising inequality in Asia - MP3 (25MB)
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Interview with Dr David Daokui Li
 Dr David Daokui Li delivered the third China Changing Lecture at the Lowy Institute on Thursday 19 April 2012. Before the lecture, he spoke with Mark Thirlwell, Program Director International Economy, about China's growth prospects and the implications for Australia.
The interview can be watched by clicking the adjacent image.
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China's expanding role in Africa and implications for the EU
East Asia Program Director Linda Jakobson examines China's expanding role in Africa and the implications for China-EU relations in 'Europe and China: Strategic Partners or Rivals?', a book edited by Dr Roland Vogt and published by Hong Kong University Press. In the chapter, Jakobson and Jacob Wood argue that China is cultivating relations on the African continent for multiple reasons. Besides the need for resources, China's increasingly close relationship with African nations reflects Beijing's evolving foreign policy and diplomacy as China strives to establish itself as a world power.
The book was reviewed by Mark O'Neill in the Sunday Morning Post on 8 April 2012.
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Lowy Lecture Series - Professor Sir Lawrence Freedman presentation
With the US out of Iraq and on its way out of Afghanistan, American military strategy may be reverting back to large-war scenarios for its future planning. At the Lowy Lecture on 4 April 2012, Professor Sir Lawrence Freedman considered the basis for this reversion, including a reassessment of the war on terror, frustration with COIN (counter-insurgency) and concerns about China, and asked whether it will be any easier for the US to avoid the lesser contingencies in the future than it has been in the past.
His lecture can be heard here:
The future of American military strategy - MP3 (22MB)
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The 2012 national elections in Papua New Guinea: averting violence
As Papua New Guinea gears up for the national election due to be held mid 2012, there is increasing concern that the electoral process will be marred by violence. With the country already gripped by a series of constitutional crises in the wake of the parliamentary election of Peter O’Neill as Prime Minister in August 2011, flawed elections will further dent public confidence in the government’s ability to uphold democratic principles. Authors Scott Flower and Jim Leahy sketch out the factors which could exacerbate tensions in the 2012 national elections and set out a series of recommended actions to avert the violence.
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Inflection point: the Australian Defence Force after Afghanistan
In this Policy Brief, Professor Alan Dupont argues that the Australian Defence Force (ADF) is at an inflection point and requires re-evaluation of its goals, strategy, structure, and resources as it transitions from the Afghanistan conflict. Dupont warns against repeating the mistakes of the post-Vietnam era when Australia was left with a poorly equipped defence force. He argues for a vigorous public debate about the priorities of the ADF as Australia begins to formulate a new Defence White Paper. Dupont concludes that 'Australia’s responsibilities and interests in the Melanesian world suggest that boots on the ground are likely to remain an enduring feature of ADF deployments. The next White Paper should include a clearly articulated defence strategy and give greater emphasis to working more closely with our Asian neighbours.'
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Global fiscal adjustment and trade rebalancing
The emergence of substantial fiscal deficits and a large build-up of government debt in major advanced economies will inevitably lead to a period of fiscal consolidation in coming years. In an earlier paper, McKibbin and Stoeckel (2010) explored the effects of this fiscal adjustment in advanced economies on the global economic outlook. This paper focuses on the differences between the impacts of fiscal policy in advanced versus emerging economies. In particular, the need for more fiscal spending on infrastructure in emerging economies and the need for fiscal consolidation in advanced economies leads naturally to the question of what this asymmetric fiscal adjustment might do to global trade balances as well as global economic growth over the coming decades.
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Lowy Lecture Series - Ian Kemish presentation
At the Lowy Lecture on 21 March 2012, Ian Kemish, Australian High Commissioner in Port Moresby, spoke on how Australia’s focus should be on helping Papua New Guinea unlock its own potential. He argued that as a close supporter of PNG, Australia should remain closely engaged at all levels through this challenging political period, and not hesitate to express its views clearly in response to developments of concern.
His presentation can be heard here:
Papua New Guinea's dilemma - MP3 (21MB)
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Doubling down on Obama
 Dr Michael Fullilove, the Lowy Institute’s Program Director Global Issues, has been observing President Barack Obama for a long time. He was in Boston for the 2004 Democratic National Convention at which Obama emerged as a national figure, and he spent the 2008 election year in the United States as a Visiting Fellow at the Brookings Institution.
Dr Fullilove has recently returned from a research trip to Washington. On his return he recorded this video op-ed, in which he explains why he believes President Obama will be re-elected in November.
Also available on the Lowy Institute’s Vimeo Channel: http://vimeo.com/39674655
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Lowy Lecture Series - Professor Alan Dupont presentation
 On 29 March 2012, in the Lowy Lecture Series, Professor Alan Dupont launched his a new Lowy Institute Policy Brief, 'Inflection Point: The Australian Defence Force after Afghanistan', which suggests that as the ADF transitions from involvement in the Afghanistan conflict the risks of failing to adjust and adapt to new security circumstances are especially high.
His presentation can be heard here:
Inflection Point: The Australian Defence Force after Afghanistan - MP3 (22MB)
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